COVID-19 third wave, inevitable?

July 23, 2021

The IMA had said with the global evidence available and the history of any pandemics, the third wave is inevitable and imminent as in many parts of the country both the government and public are complacent and engaged in mass gatherings without following Covid-19 protocols.

The risks are real and rising because the pace of vaccination has slowed down to under 3.4 million doses daily from 4 million earlier and also as many as 45 per cent of the daily infections are being reported from rural areas, points Tanvee Gupta-Jain, the chief economist at UBS Securities India.

A possible third wave of Covid-19 can be precipitated by waning immunity among people, the emergence of a more transmissible variant of the coronavirus and relaxations by governments in lockdown curbs. In the case of waning immunity, individuals who have been exposed to the virus before again become susceptible. Once the natural immunity subsides. If all restrictions are lifted and a variant is able to escape immunity, then the next wave can be bigger than the second wave, Dr. Guleria said, citing one possibility as projected by an IIT mathematical model.

However, if there is a balance between restrictions and reopening, with some restriction remaining in place, the impact will not be as huge as it was during the second wave, provided the virus also remains stable.

The World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the world is in the “early stages” of the third wave of Covid-19, driven by the Delta variant of the virus. The variant, found now in more than 111 nations, had first surfaced in India and was behind the devastating second surge of the virus.

“We expect it to soon be the dominant COVID-19 strain circulating worldwide if it isn’t already,” the WHO chief had said.

The overall Covid-19 situation in India is improving steadily with daily news infections falling, but a spike is being observed in pockets — like in the northeastern states and in Kerala. Maharashtra’s Covid-19 graph has hit a plateau. The jury is still out on whether these are the early signs of a third wave, while the government has been repeatedly cautioning people against crowding.

At the end of the day, the choice of staying healthy and immunizing our body is in our hands. Ensure this by testing at your nearest Apollo Spectra Hospital or consult our doctors online and get the care you deserve.